Poor guy; I spent 15,000 once and got a portrait, which I thought was alright (since being f2p I don’t usually have one), but spending 1,000,000 silver to get no squads is just gaijin greed™.
he didin’t even get that, not hammer, no weapon, not portraits, just that…it was…wow…
No, not greed. It’s the luck of the draw.
I’ve yet to get a squad from a box.
yeah but theoretically, 100 boxes should get you a squad. And since you’re spending something like 500,000 or more silver, it should basically be guranteed too.
That’s not how it works…
It’s 1% for a squad, per roll. It isn’t cumulative.
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Which means your chance of getting at least 1 squad from “x” boxes is 0.99^x
So if you buy 70 you have about 50.5% chance of getting at least 1 squad.
if you buy 100 you have about 63.4% chance.
If you buy 200 you have about 86.6% chance
No. Not at all.
You buy 1 box, you have 1% of getting a squad.
You buy 100 boxes, you still have 1% of getting a squad per roll.
It isn’t cumulative.
I really don’t know how else I can explain this.
I’m not a content creator and i spend 350k for 1 squad paratrooper for Germany, 4 vehicles and some weapons/soldiers.
The 1% chance isn’t cumulative - it doesn’t add, and yes the chance of EACH roll remains at 1%.
But the chance of getting a “success” across a number of rolls is NOT 1%.
An easier illustration - if you are tossing a coin then you have a 50% chance of heads or tails with each toss.
But the chance of 2 tosses yielding 2 heads is 25% - and the chance of not getting 2 heads is 75%.
If you have 2 heads already, then the chance of getting 3 heads is still 50% - because you have already met the pre-condition of having 2 heads so it relies on only 1 toss.
But if you are starting from scratch then the chance of getting 3 heads is 12.5% - 50% x 50% x 50% or 50% cubed (0.5^3)
The flip side (sic! 
) is the chance of not getting 3 heads (from scratch) - it is 100% - 12.5% = 87.5%
So back to our 1% example - the chances of not getting 1% (success) are 99% each roll - but over a large population of rolls the chances of getting no successes at all require the 99% to come up every time.
And the chances of that happening are 0.99 raised to the power of the number of rolls… which is 0.99^x, where “x” is the number of boxes purchased
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Dude, no…
You’re absolutely missing this…
One roll is 1% of a squad.
One hundred rolls is 1% per roll. Regardless of the amount of rolls, each one is 1% per roll.
This isn’t a dice roll. It isn’t cumulative.
If it were the case, I would have rolled a bunch of squads with the amount of silver I’ve spent… Which isn’t the case.
Again, I don’t know how to explain this any clearer…
You have no understanding of stats.
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And you have no understanding of odds.
Stats and odds are very different things.
So, just so we’re all clear on this:
1% chance of grabbing a squad, doesn’t mean if you buy 100 boxes you’re guaranteed a squad. This isn’t how it works.
Each box you buy means you have 1% chance of getting a squad, per box. So if you buy 100 boxes, you still have only a 1% chance of getting a squad per box you buy. THE ODDS AREN’T CUMULATIVE. THEY DO NOT STACK.
I hope this helps.
A lottery winning guarantee mechanism should be set up. For example, 100,000 silver coins can be exchanged for a weapon, and 500,000 silver coins can be used to obtain a team, and so on. Otherwise, this is indeed pure gambling. I spent over 600,000 silver coins but didn’t get any team.
As much as I agree with this, it isn’t how it works in its current inception.
Funny thing is, both of you are correct in your explanations in certain context.
Statistics is funny thing.
I feel like the one thing we all agree on is that after spending so much silver, at least a weapon or squad should be guranteed. I hope next time the veteran boxes come out, the odds of obtaining old squads and weapons are at least doubled.
Not squad, but weapon why not.